Binary Options Analysis – Trade of the Week: AUD/JPY 9th February 2015

Japan – Current Account

On Sunday, at GMT 11:50 p.m., the Japanese Ministry of Finance released the current account figure, which measures the difference in value between total import and export goods and services in the country over the reported period.

Unlike the trade balance data, current account also includes net income flows and other unilateral transfers as well. Hence, it tends to offer a comprehensive picture regarding the inflows and outflows of foreign exchange into and out of Japan. Hence, Forex market analysts and binary options traders consider this a vital fundamental indicator of the Japan’s currency (Yen) demand.

Last month, the Japanese current account figure came out at 0.91 trillion yen and the forecast for this month was set at 0.95 trillion. However, the actual current account figure came out way better than expected, just shy of a trillion, at 0.98 trillion.

Australia – ANZ Job Advertisements

Within an hour of the release of the Japanese current account figure, at GMT 12:30 a.m. (Monday), the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) released its month-over-month job advertisement figure. The ANZ measures the changes in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily news and online media in the capital cities of Australia and release this figure on a monthly basis.

Since a job advertisement leads to hiring of an employee, the number of jobs posted in newspapers and online job sites act as an excellent leading indicator of the overall labour market in Australia. Therefore, binary options traders pay special attention to the ANZ job advertisement data.

In January, the ANZ job advertisement figure increased by 1.8% indicating a potentially well performing job market in the coming weeks. However, this month the job advertisement number slowed down and grew only by 1.3%.

Trade Recommendation for the AUD/JPY

Chart AUDJPY, D1, 2015.02.09 13:43 UTC

The AUD/JPY has been on a strong downtrend since November 21, 2014 and formed a well-respected downtrend line in the process. During the last few months, as the AUD performed poorly against the US Dollar, the AUD/JPY also followed the trend and broke two major support levels, 95.50 and 94.50.

Last week, the AUD/JPY reached the 261.8% retracement level of the last major upswing towards the trend line, and produced a sharp bullish pin bar. From a technical point of view, the pin bar should attract further bullish momentum that may push the AUD/JPY price higher, towards the trend line, around the 94.50 level. This would now act as a resistance to the bullish momentum.

However, as the Japanese current account figure came out better than what the binary options traders were expecting and the ANZ job advertisement figure only increased by 1.3% against 1.8% from last month, the AUD/JPY may not have the fundamental support to break the trend line.

In that case, it is recommended that binary options traders consider placing PUT orders once the AUD/JPY price touches and gets rejected at the trend line, as it is likely that the pair will remain below the 94.50 level for the next few weeks.

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About our Forex Analyst:  Asif Imtiaz

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