Binary Options Analysis – Trade of the Week: EUR/AUD 4th May 2015

Australia – Trade Balance

eur/aud currency pairOn Tuesday, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the national trade balance figure, which measures the difference in value between net exported and imported products and services over the reported month.

Binary options traders consider the trade balance to be a vital fundamental indicator because currency demand is directly correlated with export demand. This is because foreign importers must convert their currency into Australian Dollar in order to pay for their imports. Therefore, a positive trade balance can indicate the strength of the Australian Dollar in the binary options market.

In April, the Australian trade balance figure came out at negative 1.26 billion (AUD) and the forecast for May is currently set at a slightly improved figure of negative 0.98 billion (AUD).

Eurozone – Spanish Unemployment Change

Later in the morning, at GMT 7:00 a.m., the Spanish Employment Ministry will release the national unemployment change figure, which measures the changes in the total number of unemployed people over the past month.

Since Spain is one of the troubled economies in the Eurozone, binary options traders pay close attention to the employment situation in the country in order to gauge the overall labor market situation in the Eurozone. Hence, the Spanish unemployment change figure can signal the overall economic situation in the Eurozone and help with the valuation of the Euro against other major currencies.

Last month, the Spanish unemployment change figure came out at -60,200 and the forecast for this month is set at a slightly improved figure, around -64,800.

Trade Recommendation for the EUR/AUD

Chart EURAUD, D1, 2015.05.04 22:08 UTC

Since the formation of a bearish pin bar on December 17, 2014, the EUR/AUD has been on a strong downtrend that pushed the price to as low as 1.3678 on April 28. However, last week, as soon as the price reached this year’s low, it rebounded sharply and broke the downward sloping trend line.

It is widely believed that the reduced deflation in the Eurozone economy on April 30, -0.1% compared to -0.3% in March, was the key reason behind this bullish move by the EUR/AUD.

Along with the improving deflation situation in the Eurozone, the improving Spanish unemployment change number can fuel further bullish movement in the coming few weeks. Currently, the EUR/AUD is trading around the pivot zone at 1.4250 and unless the Spanish unemployment change figure comes much worse than the current forecast, it should remain above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downward swing for the next few days, which is situated at 1.4151.

Therefore, it is strongly recommended that binary options traders consider placing a CALL order with the EUR/AUD at current market price.

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About our Forex and Binary Options Analyst:  Asif Imtiaz

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