AUD/JPY Appears Bearish as Yen Carry Trade Unwinds

Australia – National Australia Bank (NAB) Limited Business Confidence Index

Tomorrow, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the National Australia Bank (NAB) Limited released its monthly business confidence index figure. This figure measures the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of 350 businesses in Australia.

The survey asks respondents to rate the current business environment in Australia. Since businesses are the first to react to changing business conditions, the level of their sentiment regarding optimism and business confidence, binary options investors consider it as a leading indicator of the overall economic health in the coming months.

Last month, in August, the NAB business confidence index came out at 4, after reaching as high as 10 in July. Any figure below 4 would indicate a declining trend in the business confidence level in Australia.

Japan – Economy Watchers Sentiment

Later, at 5:00 a.m., the Japanese Cabinet Office will release the economy watchers sentiment, which measures the changes in the level of a diffusion index by surveying 2,000 workers who directly observe consumer spending as part of their job responsibility.

Since these job holders are the front line workers in the retail and services industries, they have an insight regarding how the consumers are spending compared to the previous period. Hence, Australian binary options traders consider the Japanese economy watchers sentiment index to be a leading indicator of the overall economic health of the country, because consumer spending makes up a large portion of the overall Japanese economy.

In August, the economy watchers sentiment index came out at 51.6 and the forecast for September is currently set at 52.1.

Trade Recommendation for the AUD/JPY


Since July 8, 2015, the AUD/JPY has traded within a tight range between 89.30 and 95.65. However, as the global equity markets collapsed in the last two weeks, the market also saw AUD/JPY carry trade to unwind.

As a result, the AUD/JPY broke below this tight range and fell around 730 pips to the 82.00 level by August 24. Since August 24, the AUD/JPY price has found strong support around the 82.00 level twice.

As the investors’ confidence in the global economy continues to remain tentative, this uncertainty may push the AUD/JPY price further down this week.

Under the circumstances, it is recommended that traders consider placing a PUT order for the AUD/JPY with their binary options brokers, once the price closes below the low of August 24, which is at 82.00.

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About our Forex and Binary Options Analyst:  Asif Imtiaz

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