AUD/CHF Depreciates Despite Weak Swiss Retail Sales Data

Australia – National Australia Bank (NAB) Limited Business Confidence Index

On Monday, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the National Australia Bank (NAB) Limited released its monthly business confidence index figure. This figure measures the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of 350 businesses in Australia.

The survey asks respondents to rate the current business environment in Australia. Since businesses are the first to react to changing business conditions, the level of their sentiment regarding optimism and business confidence, binary options traders consider it as a leading indicator of the overall economic health in the coming months.

Last month, in April 2016, the NAB business confidence index came out at 6, and this month, it came out slightly lower, at 5.

Switzerland – Retail Sales

Later, at GMT 7:15 a.m., the Swiss Federal Statistical Office released the year-over-year retail sales figure, which measures the change in the total value of sales made by the retail sector in the country. However, this figure is adjusted for inflation in order to offer an accurate overview.

Binary options investors consider the Swiss retail sales figure to be one of the main gauges of consumer confidence, which makes up the majority of the overall economic activity in Switzerland. Since consumer spending is directly correlated with consumer confidence, it can signal future economic activity as well.

Last month, the value of Swiss retail sales decreased by -0.4% and the forecast for May was set at an increase of 0.3%. The actual figure came much worse than what the market was expecting, at -1.3% decrease.

Trade Recommendation for the AUD/CHF

Over the last few months, the AUD/CHF mostly traded in a range between 0.7100 and 0.7515. Last week, after the AUD/CHF price got once again rejected around the resistance zone near 0.7515, it fell sharply and currently trading below the support near 0.7150.

Although the Swiss retail sales figure decreased last month, the strength of the currency appears surprising. However, traders must remember that the Swiss Franc is a safe haven currency and factors other than the domestic economics often dictates its valuation.

Since the AUD/CHF price has already closed below the 0.7150 level, we believe it would test the support around 0.7100 before turning or continuing to travel further south.

Under the circumstances, it would be recommended that binary options traders consider placing a PUT order for the AUD/CHF with their binary options brokers at the current market price, as long as it is trading below 0.7150.

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Asif Imtiaz

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes on various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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