GBP/AUD Downtrend Likely to Continue if UK’s Inflation Does Not Improve

United Kingdom – Consumer Price Index

Today, at GMT 9:30 a.m., the UK’s Office for National Statistics will release the year over year Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures the changes in the price of goods and services acquired by consumers.

Since the CPI basically measures the inflation level in the economy, this data is considered binary options traders as one of the most important leading indicators of the overall economic health

Last month, the UK’s CPI (y/y) increased by 0.3%, and this month the forecast was set at 0.4%. If the actual comes out higher, it may prompt the Central Bank of UK to turn bullish on the interest rate.

Australia – Unemployment Rate

On Thursday, at GMT 2:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the national unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of total work force which remained unemployed over the past month.

Binary options investors consider the unemployment rate to be one of the most important fundamental indicators of the Australian economy because one of the main goals of the Reserve Bank of Australia is to keep the unemployment as low as possible. Although this is a lagging indicator, analyzing this data can help predict future interest rates and inflation situation in the country.

Last month, the unemployment rate in Australia came out at 5.7% and the forecast for this month is set at 5.7% as well.

Trade Recommendation for the GBP/AUD


Since mid-April, the GBP/AUD price remained very bullish, but the bullishness came to an end when the pair broke below the uptrend line on May 31. Since then, the GBP/AUD price has declined by around 1350 pips.

Last week, the GBP/AUD reached the support level near the 1.9100 and formed a Doji looking daily bar, which indicated a significant level of tentativeness in the market.

As the UK’s CPI is expected to go up this week, it may have influenced the bearish trend to pause for the moment. However, if the UK’s CPI figure comes as expected or lower, the downtrend would likely continue.

Under the circumstances, it would be recommended that binary options traders consider placing a PUT order for the GBP/AUD with their binary options brokers as soon as the price penetrates and closes below the 1.9100 level.

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