AUD/USD Bullishness Likely Return If Australian Inflation Rises

Australia – Consumer Price Index

On Wednesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarter-over-quarter consumer price index (CPI) figure that measures the changes in the price of goods and services bought by Australian consumers in the last quarter.

Since the consumer price index is primarily used by the Australian central bank to measure inflation, any significant change in the CPI often makes the Forex market extremely volatile. Also, as the inflation at the retail level has a big influence on the central bank’s future monetary policy. Hence, it is considered by binary options traders to be a leading indicator of the Australian economy.

Last quarter, the Australian consumer price index decreased by 0.2% and the forecast for this quarter is set at an increase of 0.8%.

United States – Core Durable Goods Orders

On Wednesday, at GMT 12:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the month-over-month core durable goods orders figure, which measures the changes in the total value of all new purchase orders made to the US manufacturers for durable goods over the past month. However, the US Census Bureau excludes goods from the transportation sector in this figure in order to offer an accurate picture.

Binary options investors consider the US core durable goods orders to be the primary gauge of production situation in the economy, as an increase in purchase orders indicates that US manufacturing activity and growth will happen in the near future.

Last month, the US core durable goods orders decreased by 0.5% and the forecast for this month is currently set at an increase of 0.5% as well.

AUD/USD Forecast


The AUD/USD turned bearish after breaking below the uptrend line on September 18 and the pair fell to the 0.7740 in early October. Here, the AUD/USD found a strong support and as a result, it started a bullish retracement last week, which has so far pushed the price to the resistance near 0.7900.

As the US core durable orders is estimated to increase by 0.5%, but the Australian consumer price index is expected to increase by 0.8%, we believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the AUD/USD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/USD closes above the resistance near 0.7900, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian binary options traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 0.7900.

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