GBPAUD – Technical Analysis for HighLow Traders
Australia – National Australia Bank (NAB) Limited Business Confidence Index
On Tuesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the National Australia Bank (NAB) Limited will release its monthly business confidence index figure. This figure measures the level of a diffusion index based on a survey of 350 businesses in Australia.
The survey asks respondents to rate the current business environment in Australia. Businesses are the first to react to changing business conditions. So, HighLow traders consider it as a leading indicator of the overall economic health in the coming months because of the level of their sentiment regarding optimism and business confidence.
Last month, the NAB business confidence index reading came out at 11, after coming at 6 in the previous month. This month if the trend continued it will likely to have a bullish effect on the Australian Dollar.
United States – Retail Sales
On Wednesday, at GMT 1:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure. It measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.
Retail sales data are considered by binary options investors to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.
Last month, the US retail sales value increased by 0.1%. Analysts are expecting that this month, it would likely increase by an additional 0.3%.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUD/USD remained bullish since the start of December 2017. However, after reaching near the resistance around 0.8100, it reversed the trend. On February 1, the AUD/USD broke below the uptrend line in the process and found support near 0.7780. Last week, the pair formed a bullish pin bar and earlier today, it broke above 0.7825 high of the pin bar.
The NAB Limited Business Confidence Index in Australia is on an uptrend as it came out higher last month compared to the previous month. On the other hand, analysts are expecting the US retail sales value to increase from 0.1% to 0.3% this month. Here, the US retail sales data carries less weight compared to Australian NAB business confidence index. We believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the AUD/USD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/USD closes above the resistance near 0.7825, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.
Hence, HighLow traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 0.7825.
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