AUD/JPY Likely to Test Key Resistance Near 83.90 If Australian Inflation Surges

Japan – Flash Manufacturing PMI

On Tuesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Markit will release the Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI data. It measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveying around 500 purchasing managers in the country.

Binary options traders consider the Flash Manufacturing PMI figure to be a leading indicator of the Japanese economic climate. Because purchasing managers usually has the insight regarding business conditions such as employment, production capacity and new bulk orders and inventory situation.

Last month, the Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI figure came out at 53.0. This month, it may come out at 53.2.

Australia – Consumer Price Index

On Wednesday, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarter-over-quarter consumer price index (CPI) figure. It measures the changes in the price of goods and services bought by Australian consumers in the last quarter.

The consumer price index is primarily used by the Australian central bank to measure inflation. Any significant change in the CPI often makes the Forex market extremely volatile. Also, the inflation at the retail level has a big influence on the central bank’s future monetary policy. Hence, binary options investors consider it to be a leading indicator of the Australian economy.

Last quarter, the Australian consumer price index decreased by 0.4%. The forecast for this quarter is set at an increase of 0.5%.

AUD/JPY Forecast


The AUD/JPY remained range bound since the end of February 2018. Over the last several months, it mostly traded within 81.10 and 84.50 levels. However, last week, the AUD/JPY found resistance near the 83.90 level and started a bearish retracement. Currently, it is trading just below the median of the range.

There is a good chance that the Australian consumer price index will grow by 0.5% this month. It is higher than previous month’s 0.4% increase. On the other hand, analysts are expecting the Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI to increase by only 0.2 points over the last month. We believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the AUD/JPY this week. Therefore, if the AUD/JPY closes above the resistance near 83.90, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian binary options traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 83.90.

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