AUD/NZD Makes Fresh Low but Might Go Up Ahead of RBNZ’s Decision on Interest Rate

AUD/NZD – Technical Analysis for Binary Options

New Zealand – Official Cash Rate

On Wednesday, at GMT 1:00 a.m., the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release the Official Cash Rate. It is the interest rate that banks in New Zealand use to lend funds held at the central bank.

High Low investors consider the official cash rate to be the most important factor of the valuation of the New Zealand Dollar against other currencies. In fact, most of the other fundamental indicators are considered just to predict future interest rate.

Last month, the RBNZ left the official cash rate at 1.75%. The forecast for this month is that the rate would remain the same at 1.75%.

Australia – CB Leading Index

On Wednesday, at GMT 2:30 p.m., the Conference Board Inc released the month-over-month leading index for Australia. It measures the changes in the level of a composite index based seven other major fundamental indicators.

The CB leading index aggregates some of the other indicator data. So, binary options traders consider this to be an important representation of the overall Australian economy. However, since most of these data are previously released, the CB leading index tends to have a minimized immediate market impact.

Last month, the CB leading index came out at 0.1%. If the positive trend continues, it will have a bullish effect on the Australian Dollar.

AUD/NZD Forecast

AUD/NZD Analysis - daily chart -March 25 2019

Since forming a bearish pin bar on January 21, the AUD/NZD remained bearish and fell by around 360 pips. In the process, the pair formed two major downtrend lines. Over the last two weeks, the AUD/NZD tested the support near 1.0300 several times and finally broke below it. However, given the AUD/NZD is at multi-year low, there is a possibility that it will go up to test the uptrend line.

The Australian CB Leading Index grew last month. On the other hand, the New Zealand’s official cash rate will likely remain at 1.75% once again this month. We believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the AUD/NZD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/NZD closes above the resistance near 1.0300, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian HighLow traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 1.0300.

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John Walker

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