AUD/NZD Likely to Remain Bearish if New Zealand’s Trade Balance Improves

Australia – Construction Work Done

On Wednesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarter-over-quarter Construction Work Done index. It measures the changes in the total inflation-adjusted value of construction works and projects completed in the country.

The construction industry has a sizeable influence on the overall employment and consumer spending in the economy. Hence, binary options traders consider the Construction Work Done index to be a leading indicator of the Australian economic strength.

Last quarter, the Australian Construction Work Done reading decreased by -0.7%. Analysts are expecting it to decrease by -2.0% this quarter.

New Zealand – Trade Balance

On Wednesday, at GMT 9:45 p.m., Statistics New Zealand will release the national trade balance figure. It measures the difference in the value between net imports and net exports of the country during the previous month.

The export of a country is directly correlated to the demand for its currency. So, a positive trade balance figure indicates that foreigners had to buy more local (NZD) currency in exchange for their domestic currency. Hence, economists and binary options investors consider the trade balance to be an important indicator of the health of New Zealand’s economy.

Last month, the trade balance figure of New Zealand came out at -1017 million. This month, the analysts are expecting it to come out slightly better, at -500 million.

AUD/NZD Forecast

AUNZD Nov 25 2020

On September 16, 2020, the AUD/NZD broke below the uptrend line. Over the last two months, it fell by around 385 pips. During this time, it found key support resistance near 1.9000 and 1.0750 levels. Last week, it fell to 1.0470 and formed a bullish outside bar. Earlier today, the AUD/NZD broke above the high of the pin bar and appearing bullish. However, there is a good chance it will likely find a strong resistance near the 1.0600 level over the next few days.

The Australian Construction Work Done figure will likely decline by -2.0%. On the other hand, analysts are expecting New Zealand’s trade balance to improve and come out at -500 million. We believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the AUD/NZD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/NZD fails to break above the resistance near 1.0600, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian binary options traders should look out for trading opportunities below this major resistance level around 1.0600.

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