Australia – House Price Index
On Tuesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the House Price Index (HPI). It measures the changes in the selling price of houses in the 8 state capitals in Australia.
Rising house prices indicate that investors are confident about purchasing houses. Hence, binary options traders consider the HPI to be a leading indicator of investor confidence in the country. The HPI is usually released every three months in a quarter-over-quarter format.
Last month, the Australian HPI suggested that house prices in Australia’s 8 state capitals increased by 0.8%. The forecast for this month was that it would increase by 1.9%. However, the actual figure came out much better than expected, at 3.0%.
United States – Retail Sales
On Tuesday, at GMT 12:30 p.m., the US Census Bureau released the national month-over-month retail sales figure. It measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.
Forex traders consider retail sales data to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because consumers spend more when they are confident about their future financial situation.
Last month, the US retail sales value increased by 7.6%. This month, the forecast was set at a decrease of -0.5%. The actual figure came out much worse and decreased by -3.0%.
AUD/USD Forecast
Since the beginning of 2020, the AUD/USD remained range-bound. Over the last three months, it traded between the support near 0.7600 and the resistance near 0.8000. In the first week of March, it formed a bearish outside bar on the weekly time frame. Over the last two weeks, the AUD/USD formed two inside bars within the range of this weekly BEOB. Currently, it is trading just below the high of the weekly BEOB, which is at 0.7838.
The Australian House Price Index increased by 3.0%, much better than what analysts were expecting. On the other hand, the US retail sales went down by -3.0%. We believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the AUD/USD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/USD closes above the resistance near 0.7838, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.
Hence, Australian binary options traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 0.7838.
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