GBP/AUD Outlook – 21st July 2021

United Kingdom – Retail Sales

On Friday, at GMT 6:00 a.m., the UK’s Office for National Statistics will release the month-over-month retail sales figure. It measures the change in the total value of sales made by the retail sector in the country over the past month. However, they adjust it for inflation in order to offer an accurate overview.

Pocket Option traders consider the UK’s retail sales figure to be one of the main gauges of consumer confidence. Because it makes up the majority of the overall economic activity in the country. Also, consumer spending is directly correlated with consumer confidence. So, it can signal future economic activity as well.

Last month, the value of the UK’s retail sales increased by -1.4%. Analysts are expecting it remains unchanged at 0.0%

Australia – Retail Sales

On Wednesday, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the national month-over-month retail sales figure. It measures the changes in the total value of all sales made at the retail level in the country over the past month.

Retail sales data are considered by binary options investors to be the primary gauge of consumer spending and confidence. This is because when consumers are confident about their future financial situation, they tend to spend more.

Last month, the Australian retail sales value increased by 0.4%. Analysts are expecting it to go down by -0.7% this month.

GBP/AUD Forecast

GBP/AUD daily chart - 20th July 2021

The GBP/AUD remained in a strong uptrend since January 7, 2021. Over the last seven months, it climbed up by around 1280 pips or 7.35%. Earlier this month, the GBP/AUD broke above the resistance near 1.8425 and reached a high of 1.8694. Yesterday, it formed a bearish pin bar but so far, it appears that the bulls are in control.

The UK’s retail sales will likely remain unchanged and come out at 0.0%. By contrast, Australia’s retail sales will likely go down by -0.7%. We believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the GBP/AUD this week. Therefore, if the GBP/AUD closes above the resistance near 1.8694, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.

Hence, binary options traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level of around 1.8694.


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